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Bundesliga | Gameweek 30
Apr 21, 2024 at 4.30pm UK
Signal-Iduna-Park
LL

Dortmund
1 - 1
B. Leverkusen

Fullkrug (81')
Maatsen (37'), Can (45+2'), Fullkrug (45+3'), Schlotterbeck (88')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Stanisic (90+7')
Tella (28'), Frimpong (88'), Xhaka (90+1')

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen

While many observers favour this Leverkusen side to win at Dortmund, Die Werkself have lost seven of their last eight visits to Signal Iduna Park and have not beaten BVB in three consecutive league meetings. The Bundesliga champions should avoid defeat in North Rhine-Westphalia, even if it may not be enough to nick maximum points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 50.3%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 27.71% and a draw had a probability of 22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.82%) and 0-2 (6.65%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 (6.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawBayer Leverkusen
27.71% (0.029 0.03) 21.99% (0.027999999999999 0.03) 50.3% (-0.062999999999995 -0.06)
Both teams to score 64.67% (-0.084000000000003 -0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.09% (-0.119 -0.12)34.9% (0.111 0.11)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
43.11% (-0.132 -0.13)56.88% (0.127 0.13)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.41% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)24.58% (0.036999999999999 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.92% (-0.058 -0.06)59.07% (0.052 0.05)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.75% (-0.066999999999993 -0.07)14.24% (0.059000000000001 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58% (-0.121 -0.12)42% (0.113 0.11)
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 27.71%
    Bayer Leverkusen 50.3%
    Draw 21.99%
Borussia DortmundDrawBayer Leverkusen
2-1 @ 6.72% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-0 @ 4.91% (0.023 0.02)
2-0 @ 3.45% (0.012 0.01)
3-1 @ 3.14% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-2 @ 3.06% (-0.0050000000000003 -0.01)
3-0 @ 1.61% (0.004 0)
4-1 @ 1.1% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 1.07% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 2.64%
Total : 27.71%
1-1 @ 9.57% (0.023999999999999 0.02)
2-2 @ 6.55% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-0 @ 3.5% (0.02 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.99% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 0.38%
Total : 21.99%
1-2 @ 9.33% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-1 @ 6.82% (0.024 0.02)
0-2 @ 6.65% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
1-3 @ 6.06% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-3 @ 4.32% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-3 @ 4.25% (-0.013 -0.01)
1-4 @ 2.95% (-0.012 -0.01)
0-4 @ 2.11% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-4 @ 2.07% (-0.011 -0.01)
1-5 @ 1.15% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
3-4 @ 0.97% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 3.61%
Total : 50.3%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Dortmund 4-2 Atletico
Tuesday, April 16 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Borussia M'bach 1-2 Dortmund
Saturday, April 13 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Atletico 2-1 Dortmund
Wednesday, April 10 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Dortmund 0-1 Stuttgart
Saturday, April 6 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Bayern 0-2 Dortmund
Saturday, March 30 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Dortmund 3-1 Frankfurt
Sunday, March 17 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: West Ham 1-1 B. Leverkusen
Thursday, April 18 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: B. Leverkusen 5-0 Werder Bremen
Sunday, April 14 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: B. Leverkusen 2-0 West Ham
Thursday, April 11 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Union Berlin 0-1 B. Leverkusen
Saturday, April 6 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: B. Leverkusen 4-0 Dusseldorf
Wednesday, April 3 at 7.45pm in DFB-Pokal
Last Game: B. Leverkusen 2-1 Hoffenheim
Saturday, March 30 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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