With the ball hitting the back of the net at least three times in six of the last seven meetings between these two teams, goals are to be expected this weekend. Both Dortmund and Leipzig take good runs of form into this contest, but we feel that the hosts, with a fully fit Haaland in their side, should do enough to edge this intriguing contest. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 44%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 34.1% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.41%) and 0-1 (5.38%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 (7.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.

Result
Borussia Dortmund	Draw	RB Leipzig
34.1%	21.89%	44%

Both teams to score 68.95%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

69.12%

30.87%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

47.76%

52.24%

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.01%

18.99%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.46%

50.54%

RB Leipzig Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.12%

14.88%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.77%

43.23%

Score Analysis

Borussia Dortmund 34.1%

RB Leipzig 44%

Draw 21.89%

Borussia Dortmund	Draw	RB Leipzig
2-1 @ 7.43% 1-0 @ 4.69% 3-1 @ 4.11% 3-2 @ 3.92% 2-0 @ 3.9% 3-0 @ 2.16% 4-1 @ 1.71% 4-2 @ 1.63% 4-3 @ 1.03% Other @ 3.52% Total : 34.1%	1-1 @ 8.94% 2-2 @ 7.08% 0-0 @ 2.83% 3-3 @ 2.49% Other @ 0.56% Total : 21.89%	1-2 @ 8.52% 1-3 @ 5.41% 0-1 @ 5.38% 0-2 @ 5.13% 2-3 @ 4.49% 0-3 @ 3.26% 1-4 @ 2.58% 2-4 @ 2.14% 0-4 @ 1.55% 3-4 @ 1.19% 1-5 @ 0.98% Other @ 3.37% Total : 44%