Having averaged over two goals per game this year, Milan are likely to score again - and that should put their place in the last 16 beyond doubt. Nonetheless, losing in Italy was the only defeat Rennes have suffered since December, so the hosts are capable of a consolation win on the night.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rennes win with a probability of 39.3%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 35.43% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rennes win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (6.34%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 0-1 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rennes would win this match.
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