SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rosario Central win with a probability of 49.17%. A draw had a probability of 29.5% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 21.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rosario Central win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.93%) and 2-1 (7.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.84%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (9.97%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rosario Central would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Rosario Central | Draw | Sarmiento |
49.17% ( -0.16) | 29.52% ( -0.02) | 21.31% ( 0.18) |
| Both teams to score 36.73% ( 0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 31.72% ( 0.17) | 68.28% ( -0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 13.88% ( 0.11) | 86.12% ( -0.11) |
| Rosario Central Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.55% | 28.45% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.79% ( -0) | 64.21% ( 0) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.34% ( 0.3) | 48.66% ( -0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.29% ( 0.22) | 83.71% ( -0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Rosario Central | Draw | Sarmiento |
| 1-0 @ 17.4% ( -0.11) 2-0 @ 10.93% ( -0.07)2-1 @ 7.88% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 4.58% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 3.3% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.44% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.19% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.04% ( 0)Other @ 1.4% Total : 49.16% | 0-0 @ 13.84% ( -0.08) 1-1 @ 12.53% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 2.84% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.3% Total : 29.51% | 0-1 @ 9.97% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 4.51% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 3.59% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.15% Total : 21.31% |
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