SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 38.87%. A win for Rosario Central had a probability of 33.86% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.26%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest Rosario Central win was 0-1 (10.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sarmiento would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sarmiento | Draw | Rosario Central |
38.87% ( -2.24) | 27.27% ( -0.01) | 33.86% ( 2.26) |
| Both teams to score 49.82% ( 0.63) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.36% ( 0.53) | 55.64% ( -0.52) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.21% ( 0.43) | 76.8% ( -0.42) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.14% ( -0.99) | 27.87% ( 1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.53% ( -1.29) | 63.47% ( 1.3) |
| Rosario Central Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.07% ( 1.81) | 30.93% ( -1.8) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.78% ( 2.07) | 67.23% ( -2.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sarmiento | Draw | Rosario Central |
| 1-0 @ 11.01% ( -0.54) 2-1 @ 8.26% ( -0.23)2-0 @ 7.04% ( -0.56)3-1 @ 3.52% ( -0.2)3-0 @ 3% ( -0.33)3-2 @ 2.06% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.12% ( -0.1)4-0 @ 0.96% ( -0.14)Other @ 1.91% Total : 38.87% | 1-1 @ 12.92% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 8.62% ( -0.18)2-2 @ 4.84% ( 0.11)Other @ 0.89% Total : 27.27% | 0-1 @ 10.11% ( 0.29) 1-2 @ 7.58% ( 0.38)0-2 @ 5.93% ( 0.45)1-3 @ 2.97% ( 0.28)0-3 @ 2.32% ( 0.28)2-3 @ 1.9% ( 0.13)Other @ 3.05% Total : 33.85% |
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