SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 43.78%. A win for Rosario Central had a probability of 28.58% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (8.46%). The likeliest Rosario Central win was 0-1 (9.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Penarol in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Penarol.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Rosario Central |
43.78% ( 0.02) | 27.63% ( 0) | 28.58% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 46.85% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.51% ( -0.02) | 58.49% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.93% ( -0.01) | 79.07% ( 0.01) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.47% ( 0) | 26.53% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.27% ( 0) | 61.74% ( -0) |
| Rosario Central Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.77% ( -0.02) | 36.23% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.99% ( -0.02) | 73.01% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Rosario Central |
| 1-0 @ 12.75% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.59% ( 0)2-0 @ 8.46% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.8% 3-0 @ 3.74% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.93% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.26% 4-0 @ 1.24% ( 0)Other @ 2.01% Total : 43.78% | 1-1 @ 12.94% 0-0 @ 9.61% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.36% ( -0)Other @ 0.71% Total : 27.62% | 0-1 @ 9.76% ( -0) 1-2 @ 6.57% ( -0)0-2 @ 4.95% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.23% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.68% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.48% ( -0)Other @ 1.92% Total : 28.58% |
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