SM
| Current League B2 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Russia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Israel | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Iceland | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Albania | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current Group G Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Hungary | 8 | 9 | 18 |
| 2 | Serbia | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Montenegro | 8 | -2 | 11 |
| 4 | Lithuania | 8 | -6 | 6 |
| 5 | Bulgaria | 8 | -7 | 4 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Russia win with a probability of 57.7%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Serbia had a probability of 19.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Russia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.26%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.8%), while for a Serbia win it was 0-1 (5.91%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Russia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Russia | Draw | Serbia |
57.7% ( 0.21) | 22.74% ( 0.55) | 19.56% ( -0.76) |
| Both teams to score 51.84% ( -3.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.79% ( -3.41) | 47.21% ( 3.41) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.56% ( -3.25) | 69.44% ( 3.25) |
| Russia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.91% ( -1.1) | 16.09% ( 1.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.52% ( -2.05) | 45.48% ( 2.05) |
| Serbia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.78% ( -2.75) | 38.22% ( 2.75) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.02% ( -2.74) | 74.98% ( 2.75) |
| Score Analysis |
| Russia | Draw | Serbia |
| 1-0 @ 11.23% ( 1.15) 2-0 @ 10.26% ( 0.69)2-1 @ 9.87% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 6.25% ( 0.19)3-1 @ 6.01% ( -0.27)3-2 @ 2.89% ( -0.36)4-0 @ 2.86% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 2.75% ( -0.23)4-2 @ 1.32% ( -0.22)5-0 @ 1.04% ( -0.05)5-1 @ 1% ( -0.13)Other @ 2.21% Total : 57.69% | 1-1 @ 10.8% ( 0.35) 0-0 @ 6.15% ( 0.83)2-2 @ 4.75% ( -0.4)3-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.2)Other @ 0.11% Total : 22.73% | 0-1 @ 5.91% ( 0.4) 1-2 @ 5.2% ( -0.22)0-2 @ 2.84% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.67% ( -0.21)2-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.26)0-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.08)Other @ 1.51% Total : 19.56% |
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