SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 54.44%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Shrewsbury Town had a probability of 21.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.85%) and 1-2 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.35%), while for a Shrewsbury Town win it was 1-0 (6.62%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Exeter City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Shrewsbury Town | Draw | Exeter City |
21.69% ( 0.35) | 23.87% ( 0.41) | 54.44% ( -0.76) |
| Both teams to score 51.48% ( -0.81) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.72% ( -1.31) | 49.27% ( 1.31) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.66% ( -1.19) | 71.33% ( 1.19) |
| Shrewsbury Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.78% ( -0.4) | 37.22% ( 0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.99% ( -0.4) | 74% ( 0.39) |
| Exeter City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82% ( -0.76) | 17.99% ( 0.76) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.14% ( -1.32) | 48.85% ( 1.32) |
| Score Analysis |
| Shrewsbury Town | Draw | Exeter City |
| 1-0 @ 6.62% ( 0.28) 2-1 @ 5.61% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 3.27% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 1.85% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.59% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 1.08% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.68% Total : 21.69% | 1-1 @ 11.35% ( 0.21) 0-0 @ 6.7% ( 0.35)2-2 @ 4.81% ( -0.09)3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.1% Total : 23.87% | 0-1 @ 11.48% ( 0.33) 0-2 @ 9.85% ( 0.04)1-2 @ 9.74% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 5.63% ( -0.12)1-3 @ 5.57% ( -0.18)2-3 @ 2.75% ( -0.12)0-4 @ 2.42% ( -0.11)1-4 @ 2.39% ( -0.14)2-4 @ 1.18% ( -0.08)Other @ 3.43% Total : 54.43% |
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