Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 54.18%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Shrewsbury Town had a probability of 21.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.47%) and 1-2 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.72%), while for a Shrewsbury Town win it was 1-0 (7.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.
0.08) 
-0.09) 
