SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 80.71%. A draw had a probability of 12.4% and a win for Boavista had a probability of 6.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.52%) and 2-1 (8.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.74%), while for a Boavista win it was 1-2 (2.16%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Boavista |
80.71% ( 0.47) | 12.36% ( -0.39) | 6.93% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 49.93% ( 1.35) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 70.28% ( 1.82) | 29.72% ( -1.82) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 49.14% ( 2.17) | 50.85% ( -2.17) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.37% ( 0.45) | 5.62% ( -0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 78.19% ( 1.28) | 21.8% ( -1.28) |
| Boavista Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.91% ( 1.18) | 47.09% ( -1.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.44% ( 0.87) | 82.55% ( -0.88) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Boavista |
| 2-0 @ 10.96% ( -0.54) 3-0 @ 10.52% ( -0.22)2-1 @ 8.26% ( -0.12)3-1 @ 7.93% ( 0.1)1-0 @ 7.62% ( -0.59)4-0 @ 7.57% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 5.7% ( 0.22)5-0 @ 4.36% ( 0.15)5-1 @ 3.28% ( 0.21)3-2 @ 2.98% ( 0.14)4-2 @ 2.15% ( 0.15)6-0 @ 2.09% ( 0.12)6-1 @ 1.58% ( 0.14)5-2 @ 1.24% ( 0.12)Other @ 4.46% Total : 80.7% | 1-1 @ 5.74% ( -0.24) 2-2 @ 3.11% ( 0.06)0-0 @ 2.65% ( -0.28)Other @ 0.86% Total : 12.36% | 1-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 1.99% ( -0.14)Other @ 2.78% Total : 6.93% |
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