SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 58.36%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 19.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.9%) and 0-2 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.26%), while for a Moreirense win it was 2-1 (5.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Moreirense | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
19.81% ( -0.07) | 21.83% ( -0.05) | 58.36% ( 0.12) |
| Both teams to score 55.23% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.1% ( 0.1) | 42.91% ( -0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.69% ( 0.1) | 65.31% ( -0.1) |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.53% ( -0.01) | 35.47% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.77% ( -0.01) | 72.24% ( 0.01) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.6% ( 0.07) | 14.41% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.68% ( 0.14) | 42.32% ( -0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Moreirense | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 2-1 @ 5.32% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 5.3% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 2.75% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 1.84% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.78% 3-0 @ 0.95% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.89% Total : 19.81% | 1-1 @ 10.26% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.15% ( -0)0-0 @ 5.11% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.15% ( 0)Other @ 0.16% Total : 21.83% | 1-2 @ 9.94% ( 0) 0-1 @ 9.9% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 9.59% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 6.42% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 6.2% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 3.33% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 3.11% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 3% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 1.61% ( 0.01)1-5 @ 1.21% ( 0.01)0-5 @ 1.16% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.89% Total : 58.36% |
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