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Taca de Portugal | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg
Feb 29, 2024 at 8.45pm UK
Estadio Jose Alvalade
B

Sporting Lisbon
2 - 1
Benfica

Goncalves (9'), Gyokeres (54')
Hjulmand (33'), Paulinho (41')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Aursnes (68')
Schmidt (0'), Otamendi (31'), di Maria (74'), Kokcu (75'), Silva (78')

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Sporting Lisbon 1-1 Benfica

The spoils could be shared in this latest instalment of the Lisbon derby, leaving it all to play for when the reverse fixture comes around in April. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 50.46%. A win for Benfica had a probability of 26.03% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.19%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Benfica win was 1-2 (6.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Sporting Lisbon in this match.

Result
Sporting LisbonDrawBenfica
50.46% (-0.089999999999996 -0.09) 23.51% (0.029 0.03) 26.03% (0.062999999999999 0.06)
Both teams to score 57.66% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.52% (-0.074000000000005 -0.07)43.48% (0.077999999999996 0.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.12% (-0.073999999999998 -0.07)65.88% (0.076999999999998 0.08)
Sporting Lisbon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.68% (-0.060999999999993 -0.06)17.32% (0.064 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.31% (-0.108 -0.11)47.69% (0.111 0.11)
Benfica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.74% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)30.27% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.56% (0.009999999999998 0.01)66.44% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Sporting Lisbon 50.46%
    Benfica 26.03%
    Draw 23.51%
Sporting LisbonDrawBenfica
2-1 @ 9.63% (-0.004999999999999 -0)
1-0 @ 9.19% (0.011999999999999 0.01)
2-0 @ 8.06% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-1 @ 5.63% (-0.015 -0.01)
3-0 @ 4.71% (-0.013000000000001 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.36% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
4-1 @ 2.47% (-0.012 -0.01)
4-0 @ 2.06% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.47% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 3.88%
Total : 50.46%
1-1 @ 10.98% (0.02 0.02)
2-2 @ 5.76% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-0 @ 5.24% (0.018 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.34% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 23.51%
1-2 @ 6.56% (0.011 0.01)
0-1 @ 6.27% (0.023 0.02)
0-2 @ 3.74% (0.014 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.62% (0.0050000000000003 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.29%
0-3 @ 1.49% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 3.05%
Total : 26.03%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Rio Ave 3-3 Sporting Lisbon
Sunday, February 25 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 1-1 Young Boys
Thursday, February 22 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Moreirense 0-2 Sporting Lisbon
Monday, February 19 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Young Boys 1-3 Sporting Lisbon
Thursday, February 15 at 5.45pm in Europa League
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 5-0 Braga
Sunday, February 11 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Uniao de Leiria 0-3 Sporting Lisbon
Wednesday, February 7 at 8.45pm in Taca de Portugal
Last Game: Benfica 4-0 Portimonense
Sunday, February 25 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Toulouse 0-0 Benfica
Thursday, February 22 at 5.45pm in Europa League
Last Game: Benfica 6-1 Vizela
Sunday, February 18 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Benfica 2-1 Toulouse
Thursday, February 15 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Guimaraes 2-2 Benfica
Sunday, February 11 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Vizela 1-2 Benfica
Thursday, February 8 at 8.45pm in Taca de Portugal


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