SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 87.04%. A draw had a probability of 8.8% and a win for SC Farense had a probability of 4.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 3-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.42%) and 4-0 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.11%), while for a SC Farense win it was 1-2 (1.34%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | SC Farense |
87.04% ( 0.63) | 8.84% ( -0.23) | 4.12% ( -0.39) |
| Both teams to score 46.16% ( -2.64) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 75.61% ( -1.14) | 24.39% ( 1.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 55.88% ( -1.53) | 44.11% ( 1.53) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 96.34% ( -0.09) | 3.66% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 84.24% ( -0.3) | 15.75% ( 0.3) |
| SC Farense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 47.91% ( -2.69) | 52.09% ( 2.69) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 13.93% ( -1.83) | 86.07% ( 1.83) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | SC Farense |
| 3-0 @ 11.49% ( 0.62) 2-0 @ 10.42% ( 0.63)4-0 @ 9.51% ( 0.44)3-1 @ 7.5% ( -0.17)2-1 @ 6.8% ( -0.1)1-0 @ 6.3% ( 0.43)5-0 @ 6.29% ( 0.25)4-1 @ 6.2% ( -0.19)5-1 @ 4.11% ( -0.16)6-0 @ 3.47% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 2.45% ( -0.26)6-1 @ 2.26% ( -0.11)4-2 @ 2.02% ( -0.23)7-0 @ 1.64% ( 0.04)5-2 @ 1.34% ( -0.16)7-1 @ 1.07% ( -0.06)Other @ 4.15% Total : 87.02% | 1-1 @ 4.11% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 2.22% ( -0.22)0-0 @ 1.91% ( 0.14)Other @ 0.61% Total : 8.84% | 1-2 @ 1.34% ( -0.12) 0-1 @ 1.24% Other @ 1.54% Total : 4.12% |
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