Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 66.7%. A draw had a probability of 19.6% and a win for SC Farense had a probability of 13.66%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.34%) and 1-2 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.34%), while for a SC Farense win it was 1-0 (4.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.

Result
SC Farense	Draw	Sporting Lisbon
13.66% ( 0.04)	19.64% ( 0.02)	66.7% ( -0.07)

Both teams to score 49.16% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.72% (

-0.02)

44.27% (

0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.35% (

-0.02)

66.65% (

0.02)

SC Farense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.09% (

0.05)

43.91% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.96% (

0.04)

80.04% (

-0.04)

Sporting Lisbon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.64% (

-0.03)

12.36% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

61.8% (

-0.05)

38.2% (

0.05)

Score Analysis

SC Farense 13.66%

Sporting Lisbon 66.69%

Draw 19.64%

SC Farense	Draw	Sporting Lisbon
1-0 @ 4.47% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 3.84% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 1.84% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.1% ( 0) 3-1 @ 1.05% ( 0) Other @ 1.36% Total : 13.66%	1-1 @ 9.34% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.43% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.02% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.86% Total : 19.64%	0-2 @ 11.86% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 11.34% 1-2 @ 9.76% ( 0) 0-3 @ 8.27% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 6.8% ( -0) 0-4 @ 4.32% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 3.56% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.8% ( 0) 0-5 @ 1.81% ( -0.01) 1-5 @ 1.49% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.46% Other @ 3.22% Total : 66.69%