Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 60.14%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Mazatlan had a probability of 19.64%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.44%) and 1-0 (7.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.07%), while for a Mazatlan win it was 1-2 (5.26%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.

Result
Toluca	Draw	Mazatlan
60.14% ( 0.11)	20.22% ( -0.03)	19.64% ( -0.08)

Both teams to score 60.69% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.39% (

0.05)

35.61% (

-0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.34% (

0.05)

57.66% (

-0.05)

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.44% (

0.05)

11.56% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

63.51% (

0.1)

36.49% (

-0.1)

Mazatlan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.62% (

-0.04)

31.38% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.25% (

-0.05)

67.75% (

0.05)

Score Analysis

Toluca 60.14%

Mazatlan 19.64%

Draw 20.22%

Toluca	Draw	Mazatlan
2-1 @ 9.79% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8.44% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.83% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 7.04% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 6.07% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 4.08% ( 0) 4-1 @ 3.8% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 3.28% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 2.2% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.64% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.41% ( 0.01) 5-2 @ 0.95% ( 0) Other @ 3.62% Total : 60.14%	1-1 @ 9.07% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.67% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 3.63% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.58% ( -0) Other @ 0.27% Total : 20.22%	1-2 @ 5.26% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 4.2% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 2.44% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.19% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.03% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.58% Total : 19.64%