A second home win of the Serie A season may finally be afoot for Udinese, who have had trouble hanging onto leads throughout a testing campaign. Monza often struggle to score on the road, so one goal could decide the points' destiny.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Udinese win with a probability of 39.28%. A win for Monza had a probability of 34.97% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Udinese win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.55%) and 2-0 (6.55%). The likeliest Monza win was 0-1 (8.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
-0.44) 
0.48) 
