Gimnasia have never won an away game in the Copa Sudamericana, and we think that their wait will continue after Wednesday's encounter because we expect the hosts to make full use of home advantage and replicate the 1-0 victory that they picked up in the reverse fixture.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universitario win with a probability of 59.34%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Gimnasia had a probability of 17.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Universitario win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.93%) and 2-1 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.06%), while for a Gimnasia win it was 0-1 (6.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Universitario in this match.
-0.09) 
0.04) 
