SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Valencia win with a probability of 57.64%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Almeria had a probability of 20.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Valencia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.93%) and 2-0 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.48%), while for an Almeria win it was 0-1 (5.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Valencia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Valencia | Draw | Almeria |
57.64% ( 0.89) | 22.22% ( -0.15) | 20.14% ( -0.75) |
| Both teams to score 54.47% ( -0.69) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.82% ( -0.36) | 44.18% ( 0.35) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.44% ( -0.35) | 66.56% ( 0.34) |
| Valencia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.93% ( 0.17) | 15.06% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.42% ( 0.32) | 43.58% ( -0.33) |
| Almeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.13% ( -0.95) | 35.87% ( 0.95) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.35% ( -0.98) | 72.65% ( 0.98) |
| Score Analysis |
| Valencia | Draw | Almeria |
| 1-0 @ 10.22% ( 0.21) 2-1 @ 9.93% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 9.68% ( 0.26)3-1 @ 6.26% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 6.11% ( 0.2)3-2 @ 3.21% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 2.96% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 2.89% ( 0.11)4-2 @ 1.52% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.12% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 1.09% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.64% Total : 57.63% | 1-1 @ 10.48% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 5.4% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 5.09% ( -0.12)3-3 @ 1.1% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.14% Total : 22.21% | 0-1 @ 5.54% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 5.38% ( -0.16)0-2 @ 2.84% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 0.97% ( -0.06)Other @ 1.84% Total : 20.14% |
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