SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 82.52%. A draw had a probability of 10.7% and a win for Almeria had a probability of 6.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 3-0 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.18%) and 3-1 (8.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.52%), while for an Almeria win it was 1-2 (2.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Real Madrid | Draw | Almeria |
82.52% ( 0.79) | 10.75% ( -0.44) | 6.73% ( -0.35) |
| Both teams to score 57.35% ( 0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 78.77% ( 0.96) | 21.22% ( -0.97) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 60.18% ( 1.33) | 39.82% ( -1.34) |
| Real Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 96.23% ( 0.28) | 3.77% ( -0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 83.87% ( 0.9) | 16.12% ( -0.91) |
| Almeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.6% ( -0.02) | 40.4% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.98% ( -0.01) | 77.01% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Real Madrid | Draw | Almeria |
| 3-0 @ 8.94% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 8.18% ( -0.22)3-1 @ 8.1% ( -0.04)2-1 @ 7.42% ( -0.21)4-0 @ 7.33% ( 0.12)4-1 @ 6.64% ( 0.11)1-0 @ 4.99% ( -0.25)5-0 @ 4.81% ( 0.18)5-1 @ 4.36% ( 0.17)3-2 @ 3.67% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 3.01% ( 0.05)6-0 @ 2.63% ( 0.16)6-1 @ 2.38% ( 0.14)5-2 @ 1.97% ( 0.07)7-0 @ 1.23% ( 0.1)7-1 @ 1.12% ( 0.09)6-2 @ 1.08% ( 0.06)4-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.75% Total : 82.52% | 1-1 @ 4.52% ( -0.23) 2-2 @ 3.36% ( -0.09)0-0 @ 1.52% ( -0.11)3-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.23% Total : 10.75% | 1-2 @ 2.05% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 1.38% ( -0.1)2-3 @ 1.02% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.29% Total : 6.73% |
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