Alaves will enter this match in strong form, but Almeria's last two performances cannot be ignored, drawing with Girona before coming so close to picking up a point at Real Madrid. As a result, we are struggling to back the hosts to lose here, believing that they will be good enough to secure a share of the spoils.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almeria win with a probability of 38.94%. A win for Alaves had a probability of 33.28% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Almeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.15%) and 2-0 (7.22%). The likeliest Alaves win was 0-1 (10.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
-0.11) 
0.02) 
