While Bahia have been the better side in this fixture over the last couple of years, their away record this season has been very poor, with only three wins earned in 15 outings to date.
Vasco da Gama, on the other hand, have been impressive at home, notching up wins over the likes of Sao Paulo and Fortaleza this season, and we feel they will be able to pick up another three points in this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 42.87%. A win for Bahia had a probability of 29.75% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.6%) and 2-0 (8.1%). The likeliest Bahia win was 0-1 (9.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Vasco da Gama would win this match.
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