Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 43.07%. A win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 29.91% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.71%) and 0-2 (8.01%). The likeliest Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 (9.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Palmeiras in this match.
-0.07) 
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