Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 37.56%. A win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 34.93% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (6.81%). The likeliest Athletico Paranaense win was 0-1 (10.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vasco da Gama would win this match.
0.01) 
-0.04) 
