Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 40.84%. A win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 32.37% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.56%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest Athletico Paranaense win was 0-1 (9.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vasco da Gama would win this match.
-0.02) 
0.03) 
