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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 42.96%. A draw had a probability of 29.8% and a win for Newell's Old Boys had a probability of 27.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.91%) and 2-1 (7.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.22%), while for a Newell's Old Boys win it was 0-1 (11.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Velez Sarsfield in this match.
| Result | ||
| Velez Sarsfield | Draw | Newell's Old Boys |
42.96% ( 0.98) | 29.8% ( 0.09) | 27.24% ( -1.07) |
| Both teams to score 40.58% ( -0.76) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.04% ( -0.66) | 65.96% ( 0.66) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.44% ( -0.46) | 84.56% ( 0.45) |
| Velez Sarsfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.4% ( 0.22) | 30.6% ( -0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.17% ( 0.26) | 66.83% ( -0.26) |
| Newell's Old Boys Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.47% ( -1.29) | 41.53% ( 1.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.98% ( -1.15) | 78.02% ( 1.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Velez Sarsfield | Draw | Newell's Old Boys |
| 1-0 @ 15.04% ( 0.45) 2-0 @ 8.91% ( 0.32)2-1 @ 7.83% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.52% ( 0.15)3-1 @ 3.09% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.36% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 1.04% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 0.92% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.25% Total : 42.96% | 1-1 @ 13.22% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 12.7% ( 0.3)2-2 @ 3.44% ( -0.12)Other @ 0.43% Total : 29.79% | 0-1 @ 11.16% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 5.81% ( -0.24)0-2 @ 4.91% ( -0.23)1-3 @ 1.7% ( -0.13)0-3 @ 1.44% ( -0.12)2-3 @ 1.01% ( -0.07)Other @ 1.21% Total : 27.23% |
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