SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 20 | Independiente | 13 | -4 | 13 |
| 21 | Velez Sarsfield | 12 | -2 | 12 |
| 22 | Central Cordoba | 12 | -8 | 11 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Aldosivi | 12 | 4 | 20 |
| 8 | Newell's Old Boys | 12 | 3 | 20 |
| 9 | Tigre | 12 | 7 | 19 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 49.98%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Newell's Old Boys had a probability of 23.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.05%) and 2-1 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.44%), while for a Newell's Old Boys win it was 0-1 (8.6%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Velez Sarsfield | Draw | Newell's Old Boys |
49.98% ( -5.8) | 26.71% ( 1.58) | 23.31% ( 4.22) |
| Both teams to score 45.28% ( 1.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.57% ( -1.44) | 58.42% ( 1.44) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.98% ( -1.14) | 79.02% ( 1.13) |
| Velez Sarsfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.5% ( -3.07) | 23.5% ( 3.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.47% ( -4.66) | 57.53% ( 4.65) |
| Newell's Old Boys Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.19% ( 3.62) | 40.8% ( -3.63) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.62% ( 3.09) | 77.38% ( -3.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Velez Sarsfield | Draw | Newell's Old Boys |
| 1-0 @ 13.88% ( -0.53) 2-0 @ 10.05% ( -1.39)2-1 @ 9.01% ( -0.27)3-0 @ 4.85% ( -1.21)3-1 @ 4.35% ( -0.57)3-2 @ 1.95% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 1.76% ( -0.65)4-1 @ 1.58% ( -0.38)Other @ 2.54% Total : 49.97% | 1-1 @ 12.44% ( 0.75) 0-0 @ 9.59% ( 0.51)2-2 @ 4.04% ( 0.27)Other @ 0.63% Total : 26.7% | 0-1 @ 8.6% ( 1.23) 1-2 @ 5.58% ( 0.84)0-2 @ 3.85% ( 0.87)1-3 @ 1.67% ( 0.38)2-3 @ 1.21% ( 0.19)0-3 @ 1.15% ( 0.34)Other @ 1.26% Total : 23.31% |
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