Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Walsall win with a probability of 42.97%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 31.51% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Walsall win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.96%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Walsall would win this match.
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