Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 46.41%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 28.85% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.32%) and 2-0 (7.73%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (7.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.
0.03) 
-0.01) 
