On the back of the results on Boxing Day, momentum has shifted into Stoke's favour. However, we cannot ignore Watford's previous form, leading us to back the home side to earn a share of the spoils against the improving Potters.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 46.2%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 29.21% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.31%) and 2-0 (7.57%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 0-1 (7.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
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