Given the upheaval at Watford, Stoke arguably enter this contest as the marginal favourites. However, we cannot ignore the extra attacking quality within the Hornets ranks, leading us to predict a competitive draw being played out in the Potteries.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 46.16%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Watford had a probability of 26.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.09%) and 2-1 (8.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.8%), while for a Watford win it was 0-1 (9.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.
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