SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Twente win with a probability of 52.9%. A win for Willem II had a probability of 24.94% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Twente win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.93%) and 0-2 (7.64%). The likeliest Willem II win was 2-1 (6.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Twente would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Willem II | Draw | FC Twente |
24.94% ( -0.23) | 22.15% ( -0) | 52.9% ( 0.23) |
| Both teams to score 61.29% ( -0.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.82% ( -0.21) | 38.18% ( 0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.54% ( -0.23) | 60.45% ( 0.23) |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.72% ( -0.29) | 28.27% ( 0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.01% ( -0.37) | 63.99% ( 0.37) |
| FC Twente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.45% | 14.55% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.4% ( -0) | 42.59% |
| Score Analysis |
| Willem II | Draw | FC Twente |
| 2-1 @ 6.33% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 5.2% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 3.28% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 2.66% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.57% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 1.38% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.52% Total : 24.94% | 1-1 @ 10.01% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.1% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 4.11% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 1.65% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.28% Total : 22.15% | 1-2 @ 9.65% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 7.93% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 7.64% ( 0.08)1-3 @ 6.2% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 4.91% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 3.92% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 2.99% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 2.37% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 1.89% ( -0.01)1-5 @ 1.15% ( 0)0-5 @ 0.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.33% Total : 52.9% |
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