Having lost just three times this season, Willem II will back themselves to earn something from this contest. Nevertheless, Ajax are building up a head of steam, leading us to predict a one-sided victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 76.59%. A draw had a probability of 14.9% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 8.52%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.41%) and 1-0 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.06%), while for a Willem II win it was 0-1 (2.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
Ajax	Draw	Willem II
76.59% ( 0.02)	14.9%	8.52% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 47.52% (

-0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.24% (

-0.05)

36.76% (

0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.07% (

-0.06)

58.93% (

0.06)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

92.07% (

-0.01)

7.94% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

71.96% (

-0.02)

28.04% (

0.02)

Willem II Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

51.61% (

-0.07)

48.39% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

16.49% (

-0.05)

83.51% (

0.05)

Score Analysis

Ajax 76.58%

Willem II 8.52%

Draw 14.9%

Ajax	Draw	Willem II
2-0 @ 12.32% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 10.41% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 9.73% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 8.95% ( -0) 3-1 @ 7.56% ( -0) 4-0 @ 6.59% ( 0) 4-1 @ 4.79% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 3.34% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.74% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 2.43% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.01) 6-0 @ 1.41% ( -0) 6-1 @ 1.02% ( -0) Other @ 3.55% Total : 76.58%	1-1 @ 7.06% ( 0) 0-0 @ 3.84% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 3.25% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.75% Total : 14.9%	0-1 @ 2.79% ( 0) 1-2 @ 2.56% ( -0) 0-2 @ 1.01% ( -0) Other @ 2.15% Total : 8.52%