SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 59.58%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Almere City had a probability of 19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.84%) and 0-2 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.06%), while for an Almere City win it was 2-1 (5.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Willem II would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Almere City | Draw | Willem II |
19% ( 1.39) | 21.42% ( 0.31) | 59.58% ( -1.7) |
| Both teams to score 55.18% ( 1.6) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.71% ( 0.84) | 42.29% ( -0.84) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.3% ( 0.83) | 64.69% ( -0.84) |
| Almere City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.03% ( 2.04) | 35.96% ( -2.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.25% ( 2.03) | 72.74% ( -2.03) |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.17% ( -0.25) | 13.83% ( 0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.82% ( -0.49) | 41.18% ( 0.49) |
| Score Analysis |
| Almere City | Draw | Willem II |
| 2-1 @ 5.14% ( 0.32) 1-0 @ 5.09% ( 0.09)2-0 @ 2.6% ( 0.19)3-1 @ 1.75% ( 0.2)3-2 @ 1.74% ( 0.18)Other @ 2.68% Total : 19% | 1-1 @ 10.06% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 5.09% ( 0.28)0-0 @ 4.97% ( -0.19)3-3 @ 1.14% ( 0.11)Other @ 0.16% Total : 21.42% | 1-2 @ 9.95% ( 0) 0-1 @ 9.84% ( -0.46)0-2 @ 9.73% ( -0.55)1-3 @ 6.57% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 6.42% ( -0.43)2-3 @ 3.36% ( 0.15)1-4 @ 3.25% ( -0.06)0-4 @ 3.18% ( -0.24)2-4 @ 1.66% ( 0.06)1-5 @ 1.29% ( -0.04)0-5 @ 1.26% ( -0.11)Other @ 3.08% Total : 59.58% |
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