Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos Laguna win with a probability of 43.88%. A win for Pachuca had a probability of 30.19% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos Laguna win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.99%) and 2-0 (7.73%). The likeliest Pachuca win was 0-1 (8.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Santos Laguna would win this match.
