SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pachuca win with a probability of 41%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 35.86% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pachuca win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.49%) and 0-2 (5.48%). The likeliest Toluca win was 2-1 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.18%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Toluca | Draw | Pachuca |
35.86% ( 1.79) | 23.13% ( -0.56) | 41% ( -1.23) |
| Both teams to score 64.6% ( 2.57) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.27% ( 3.18) | 36.73% ( -3.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.11% ( 3.37) | 58.89% ( -3.37) |
| Toluca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.19% ( 2.41) | 20.81% ( -2.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.53% ( 3.65) | 53.47% ( -3.65) |
| Pachuca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.57% ( 0.79) | 18.43% ( -0.79) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.41% ( 1.32) | 49.59% ( -1.32) |
| Score Analysis |
| Toluca | Draw | Pachuca |
| 2-1 @ 7.99% ( 0.14) 1-0 @ 6.02% ( -0.5)2-0 @ 4.72% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 4.18% ( 0.36)3-2 @ 3.54% ( 0.39)3-0 @ 2.47% ( 0.16)4-1 @ 1.64% ( 0.25)4-2 @ 1.39% ( 0.24)4-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.13)Other @ 2.94% Total : 35.86% | 1-1 @ 10.18% ( -0.56) 2-2 @ 6.76% ( 0.29)0-0 @ 3.83% ( -0.63)3-3 @ 1.99% ( 0.26)Other @ 0.37% Total : 23.14% | 1-2 @ 8.61% ( -0.25) 0-1 @ 6.49% ( -0.87)0-2 @ 5.48% ( -0.58)1-3 @ 4.85% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 3.81% ( 0.25)0-3 @ 3.09% ( -0.25)1-4 @ 2.05% ( 0.04)2-4 @ 1.61% ( 0.14)0-4 @ 1.31% ( -0.07)Other @ 3.7% Total : 41.01% |
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