Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 44.19%. A win for Santos Laguna had a probability of 32.54% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.15%) and 2-0 (6.18%). The likeliest Santos Laguna win was 1-2 (7.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.41%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.

Result
Toluca	Draw	Santos Laguna
44.19% ( 0.4)	23.26% ( -0.02)	32.54% ( -0.39)

Both teams to score 63.07% (

-0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.69% (

-0.04)

38.31% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.41% (

-0.05)

60.59% (

0.04)

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.25% (

0.14)

17.75% (

-0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.56% (

0.25)

48.43% (

-0.26)

Santos Laguna Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.68% (

-0.24)

23.31% (

0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.73% (

-0.35)

57.26% (

0.34)

Score Analysis

Toluca 44.19%

Santos Laguna 32.54%

Draw 23.26%

Toluca	Draw	Santos Laguna
2-1 @ 9.01% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 7.15% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 6.18% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 5.19% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 3.78% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.56% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 2.24% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 1.63% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.54% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.9% Total : 44.19%	1-1 @ 10.41% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.56% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 4.14% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.32% Total : 23.26%	1-2 @ 7.58% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 6.03% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 4.39% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 3.68% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 3.18% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 1.34% ( -0.03) 2-4 @ 1.16% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.06% Total : 32.54%