Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tigres win with a probability of 66.1%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for Toluca had a probability of 14.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tigres win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.03%) and 2-1 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.37%), while for a Toluca win it was 0-1 (4.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tigres would win this match.
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