Monaco are certainly the favourites after Lyon's recent drop off in form, but the visitors still have plenty of quality to cause the hosts problems in this one.
A draw may do little to help both sides, but given that there is not much to separate the sides on paper, that looks a likely outcome here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 45.57%. A win for Lyon had a probability of 31.95% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.38%) and 2-0 (5.89%). The likeliest Lyon win was 1-2 (7.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.
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