SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 49.04%. A win for Nice had a probability of 27.44% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.72%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Nice win was 1-2 (6.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.9%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lyon | Draw | Nice |
49.04% ( -0.67) | 23.51% ( 0.15) | 27.44% ( 0.51) |
| Both teams to score 58.91% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.61% ( -0.31) | 42.38% ( 0.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.2% ( -0.31) | 64.79% ( 0.3) |
| Lyon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.55% ( -0.37) | 17.44% ( 0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.1% ( -0.64) | 47.9% ( 0.64) |
| Nice Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.36% ( 0.22) | 28.63% ( -0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.56% ( 0.27) | 64.44% ( -0.28) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lyon | Draw | Nice |
| 2-1 @ 9.52% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 8.72% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 7.61% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 5.54% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 4.43% ( -0.1)3-2 @ 3.47% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 2.42% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 1.94% ( -0.07)4-2 @ 1.51% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.87% Total : 49.04% | 1-1 @ 10.9% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 5.96% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.99% ( 0.07)3-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.22% Total : 23.51% | 1-2 @ 6.82% ( 0.09) 0-1 @ 6.25% ( 0.12)0-2 @ 3.91% ( 0.1)1-3 @ 2.84% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 2.48% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.05)Other @ 3.51% Total : 27.44% |
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