SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 47.31%. A win for Rennes had a probability of 28.59% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.05%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest Rennes win was 1-2 (7.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lille | Draw | Rennes |
47.31% ( 0.54) | 24.1% ( -0.06) | 28.59% ( -0.49) |
| Both teams to score 57.81% ( -0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.75% ( -0.05) | 44.24% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.38% ( -0.04) | 66.62% ( 0.04) |
| Lille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.16% ( 0.2) | 18.84% ( -0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.71% ( 0.34) | 50.28% ( -0.34) |
| Rennes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.23% ( -0.36) | 28.77% ( 0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.39% ( -0.45) | 64.61% ( 0.45) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lille | Draw | Rennes |
| 2-1 @ 9.41% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 9.05% ( 0.07)2-0 @ 7.55% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 5.24% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 4.2% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 3.26% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.19% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 1.75% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.36% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.31% Total : 47.31% | 1-1 @ 11.27% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.86% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 5.42% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.35% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.1% | 1-2 @ 7.02% ( -0.08) 0-1 @ 6.75% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 4.21% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 2.92% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 2.43% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 1.75% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 0.91% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.6% Total : 28.59% |
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