Despite the difference in league positions, Lille have netted just one more goal than their opponents this season, something which may indicate that a close match could materialise. Nevertheless, we are still backing the home side to edge this game, potentially by the odd goal in three courtesy of their superior defensive record.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 68.01%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Troyes had a probability of 13.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.86%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.99%), while for a Troyes win it was 0-1 (4.15%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
-0.8) 
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