The absence of Balde severely limits Troyes' effectiveness in the final third, and their newfound defensive resilience under Kisnorbo may not count for much on rival territory, where they have shipped goals for fun this term.
Both Strasbourg and Troyes have established a reputation as draw specialists recently, but having performed valiantly against PSG, Strasbourg can nick a crucial goal to post a long-awaited home victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Strasbourg win with a probability of 51.59%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Troyes had a probability of 22.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Strasbourg win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.06%) and 2-1 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.12%), while for a Troyes win it was 0-1 (7.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.
0.51) 
-0.51) 
