SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 54.31%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 23.41% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.68%) and 2-0 (8.28%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 1-2 (6.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.26%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Marseille | Draw | Toulouse |
54.31% ( -0.14) | 22.27% ( 0.09) | 23.41% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 59.04% ( -0.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.67% ( -0.35) | 40.33% ( 0.36) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.29% ( -0.37) | 62.71% ( 0.36) |
| Marseille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.16% ( -0.17) | 14.83% ( 0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.85% ( -0.32) | 43.14% ( 0.32) |
| Toulouse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.33% ( -0.15) | 30.67% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.08% ( -0.18) | 66.92% ( 0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Marseille | Draw | Toulouse |
| 2-1 @ 9.79% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.68% ( 0.09)2-0 @ 8.28% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 6.23% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 5.27% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.68% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 2.97% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 2.51% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.76% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 1.13% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 0.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.05% Total : 54.31% | 1-1 @ 10.26% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 5.79% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 4.55% ( 0.07)3-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.22% Total : 22.27% | 1-2 @ 6.06% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 5.38% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 3.18% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 2.39% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.28% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.25% ( 0)Other @ 2.88% Total : 23.41% |
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