The home team might be a little shell-shocked given what happened to them earlier this week at the hands of Marseille.
Fortunately, they are facing a team with less quality than OM, so they should have an easier time containing Ajaccio, who are more known for their defending than attacking.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 44.98%. A win for Ajaccio had a probability of 29.1% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.07%) and 2-0 (8.02%). The likeliest Ajaccio win was 0-1 (8.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toulouse would win this match.
-0.15) 
0.07) 
