Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caen win with a probability of 40.62%. A win for Ajaccio had a probability of 29.86% and a draw had a probability of 29.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caen win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.15%) and 2-1 (7.8%). The likeliest Ajaccio win was 0-1 (11.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Caen in this match.
-0.07) 
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