Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 49.34%. A win for Guingamp had a probability of 25.54% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.44%) and 0-2 (8.88%). The likeliest Guingamp win was 1-0 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toulouse would win this match.
