Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bastia win with a probability of 38.12%. A win for Dijon had a probability of 32.4% and a draw had a probability of 29.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bastia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.59%) and 2-0 (7.46%). The likeliest Dijon win was 0-1 (11.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Bastia in this match.