Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caen win with a probability of 43.49%. A draw had a probability of 29% and a win for Guingamp had a probability of 27.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caen win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.86%) and 2-1 (8.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.16%), while for a Guingamp win it was 0-1 (10.68%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Caen would win this match.
0.06) 
-0.18) 
