Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metz win with a probability of 48.96%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Pau had a probability of 24.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metz win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.79%) and 1-2 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.55%), while for a Pau win it was 1-0 (8.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.
-0.01) 
0.03) 
