Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pau win with a probability of 41.07%. A win for Niort had a probability of 31.44% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pau win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.43%) and 2-0 (7.66%). The likeliest Niort win was 0-1 (9.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.